洛杉矶时报：The Senate races to watch in Republican bid to seize controlMitch McConnell -pn-senate-midterm-races-to-watch-20140703-story.html教主2012年失利的7个州：Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia.民调稳定领先，共和党基本稳拿的3个红州：Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia.Alaska: 深红州，目前共和党仍在初选中，不出意外应该能拿下Democrat Mark Begich is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country, having won election in 2008 with just 48% of the vote in a state that leans strongly Republican. The Aug. 19 GOP primary is a three-way contest between Dan Sullivan, a former head of the state's Department of Natural Resources; Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell; and Joe Miller, a tea partier who was the 2010 U.S. Senate nominee. Both Sullivan and Treadwell are strongly positioned against Begich should they win the nomination.Arkansas: 红州，民主党官二代基层实力雄厚，共和党提名人为现任众议员，目前民调稍有领先，正猛打奥式健保案Democrat Mark Pryor was reelected in 2008 with a whopping 80% support. (His father, David, is a former Arkansas governor and three-term U.S. senator.) The climate could not be more different this time, due in large part to the overwhelming unpopularity of President Obama. The Republican nominee, Rep. Tom Cotton, has managed to unify the disparate business, social conservative and tea party wings of the GOP.Colorado: 民调拉锯，移民问题可能会左右选情Democrat Mark Udall appeared to be cruising to reelection without serious opposition until Republican Rep. Cory Gardner jumped into the race. Gardner has had to move toward the middle, however — a shift he has not always executed with grace — in a state that has been tough for the GOP in the last few election cycles.Georgia: 开放议席，红州并有一个前任的情况下共和党居然没有稳定领先简直无能This red state offers a rare pickup opportunity for Democrats, with the retirement of the GOP’s Saxby Chambliss. The Democrat is Michelle Nunn, daughter of the state’s revered longtime Sen. Sam Nunn. Businessman David Perdue is wrestling Rep. Jack Kingston in a July 22 runoff. It’s a tough but not impossible race for Nunn.Iowa: 开放议席，拉锯Establishment Republicans got the candidate they wanted in state Sen. Joni Ernst. Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley undercut his candidacy with some early mistakes, but Ernst has proved a less than sure-footed campaigner. The race is to fill the seat being vacated by the retiring Democrat Tom Harkin.Kentucky: 深红州，受制于内部的茶党之乱，身为参议院少数党领袖的共和党现任居然陷入苦战，不可思议Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell blew past his tea party competition in the GOP primary but faces a stiff challenge from Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Both candidates have a solid core of support; the fight will be for a relatively small but decisive swath of the electorate.Louisiana: 共和党初选尚未结束，两党皆有希望Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, now in her third term, has never won with more than 52% of the vote, even though -- or perhaps because -- Landrieu is a household name in Louisiana politics. (Her father is a former New Orleans mayor; her brother currently holds the job.) She is running against a crowded Republican field, which seems certain to push the contest past November to a Dec. 6 runoff. Rep. Bill Cassidy is seen as her strongest opponent.Michigan: 开放议席，民主党领先Republicans had very high hopes for Terri Lynn Land, a former secretary of state, but her early performance has been wanting. Still, the race remains competitive against Democratic Rep. Gary Peters. The seat is being vacated by retiring Democrat Carl Levin.North Carolina: 摇摆州，茶党与共和党建制派缠斗拖累了共和党选情Democrat Kay Hagan is at or near the top of the list of most vulnerable incumbents. She won election in 2008 as President Obama carried the state for Democrats for the first time in 32 years. Now he’s a drag on her candidacy. Hagan’s GOP opponent, House Speaker Thom Tillis, was the choice of the Republican establishment over tea party opposition. Outside groups have spent a fortune targeting the incumbent but the race has stayed close.